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Securities & Investment

Month: February 2023

Arabian Cement – Diligently navigating headwinds

Posted on by Marwa Nakhla

In a recent report, HC Brokerage shed the light on the cement industry in Egypt, specifically on Arabian Cement Company (ARCC) where they cut our 2022–25e EBITDA estimates by c12%.

 

  • The market is still digesting new macroeconomic and industry developments, which entails prudent pricing and cost management

  • Despite lowering our gross margin estimates, reflecting inflationary pressures, we expect ARCC to maintain its cost advantage

  • We cut our 2022–25e EBITDA estimates by c12%

 

Nesrine Mamdouh, Analyst of Industrials at HC commented that: “ Market supply/demand imbalance pressures local prices: While the Egyptian government’s introduced quota system in July 2021 curtailed local sales to 51–52m tpa, the increases in effective quota for 2022 left the effective total market capacity at around 56m tpa, 8.3% higher than the original 2021 quota. Our estimates reflect the Egyptian Competition Authority (ECA)’s July 2022 decision to increase the local cement sales quota by 8.0% and allow cement companies to exceed their quotas in certain months to regulate supply and demand. In 2022, local cement sales increased by c5% y-o-y to 51.2m tons, with the market achieving 91.4% of the quota while ARCC achieved 96.5% of its quota, demonstrating its above-average ability to take advantage of quota increases. For 2023e, if cement companies pass through the higher costs onto their customers, the retail selling price will increase to as much as EGP2,100-2,140/ton, negatively affecting demand. Therefore, we expect companies to absorb part of the increase in costs and forecast 2023e local cement prices at a range of EGP2,042-2,068/ton, moderately pressuring their margins depending on each company’s cost structure and exposure to export markets. We project local demand in 2023 to grow by an average of c2-3%, down from 5.4% a year earlier, reflecting the slowdown in construction activity. Maintaining the 2023 quota without occasional monthly increases will improve cement companies’ pricing power. Over 2023e–26e, we estimate local cement demand to increase by an average of c2.3% y-o-y and to grow at a CAGR of 2.27%. A recovery in private sector investments and any potential upcoming government decisions on private building permits are key upside risks to our numbers. As for ARCC, we expect local sales to increase by 2.1% y-o-y in 2023e to 3.29m tons, maintaining the 2023e quota. An occasional higher monthly quota would translate to an increase of up to c4% y-o-y in local sales. We forecast local sales to grow at a 2024e–26e CAGR of 2.51%.”

 

Nesrine Mamdouh added: “Exporting seems a more viable option for Egyptian cement players, especially following the recent EGP devaluation: Despite slimmer margins on cement and clinker exports historically, the EGP devaluation made exports more attractive and inflated the cash margins in EGP terms, improving the overall margins of exporting cement companies. In 2022, cement companies’ export volume increased c19% y-o-y to 9.56 m tons, and exports went mainly to Africa. Given an EGP devaluation of c37% in 2022, and c19% y-t-d.  ARCC captured a significant share of 10.5% of 2022 exports, following military-owned factories with an export share of c67%, Suez Cement Group with c12%, and other sector players with 10.5%, topped by Lafarge. We expect ARCC to maintain its high export volume of around an average of 1m ton/year over our forecast period and foresee a potential further increase in export in 2023e in case of lower-than-expected local demand and/or lower-than-expected local price adjustment to devaluation. Exporting gives the company a comparative advantage in securing its FX needs, lowering fixed production costs on larger-scale production, and offering an attractive cash margin in EGP terms. Also, we expect ARCC to further benefit from the government’s export promotion program and expect a higher income from export rebates, as implied by the FY22/23 state budget.”

 

Nesrine Mamdouh concluded: “Inflationary pressures squeeze cement companies’ margins, yet we expect ARCC to maintain its cost advantage: In February 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to supply chain disruptions, driving commodities into a price spiral. As a result, coal prices increased dramatically, reaching an all-time high in August 2022 of USD388/ton (CIF), an increase of 3.05x over January 2022 average prices. This was fueled by the European ban on Russian coal exports, effective August 2022, which later caused significant divergence and distortions in coal prices across regions. However, coal prices softened to USD142/ton as of 1 February 2023, after Europe had already heavily stockpiled coal as an alternative energy source to natural gas. Russia redirected its coal sales at very competitive prices to other non-sanction destinations, including China and India, which are also likely to boost their domestic production in 2023, according to S&P Global forecasts. Furthermore, on 9 October 2022, the Egyptian Cabinet more-than-doubled the natural gas price for cement producers to USD12.0/mmbtu from USD5.75/mmbtu. However, natural gas was partially used by a few cement players and fully by very few companies like South Valley Cement (SVCE EY) which increased its cash cost per ton. This will also alter the fuel mix of the cement companies that partially use natural gas in their fuel mix, leading them to rely more on cheaper options. Based on our calculations, coal prices above USD285/ton CIF should make companies indifferent between using coal or natural gas. On 27 October 2022, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to raise the benchmark overnight deposit and lending rates by 200 bps to 13.25% and 14.25%. Also, it moved to a durably flexible exchange rate regime, leaving the forces of supply and demand to determine the value of the EGP against other foreign currencies. On 22 December, it raised the policy rates further by 300 bps, increasing cement companies’ working capital financing costs. The EGP devaluation of c19% since 27 October 2022 to date increased the cash cost per ton of cement players due to their coal imports and other foreign currency cost components of production. However, their exports will benefit from the EGP devaluation as they will become more competitive. Thus, we expect the devaluation to compress sector margins moderately in 2023e, holding all else constant, including export levels and cost structures. We expect coal and petcoke prices to normalize throughout our forecasting period, limiting sharp, abrupt increases in the cash cost per ton and alleviating the negative effect of EGP devaluation on margins. For ARCC, we are positive about its future performance and expect it to maintain its cost advantage due to: (1) its flexibility in changing its fuel mix to the most cost-effective one, 2) its effective raw material procurement and inventory management strategies, which proved to be successful, especially over the last two years, 3) its growing reliance on solar energy to cut costs, and (4) its remarkable export level, estimated at c23% of total sales in 2023e.”

 

Egypt real estate – Subpar economic conditions warrant selectivity

Posted on by Marwa Nakhla

HC Brokerage issued their update about Egypt’s real estate sector shedding the light on six main players’ performance following the most recent market dynamics.

  • While sector investment demand benefited from inflation and EGP devaluation fears, currently, it is hurt by lower affordability, cost overruns, and challenging financing

  • We expect further market consolidation following sector conditions and the EGP devaluation; revaluation of assets is currently underway for the acquisition targets

Mariam Elsaadany, real estate analyst at HC Brokerage commented that: “ Soaring inflation is pressuring affordability and leading to cost overruns; in our view: A high inflation environment, causing negative real interest rates, has historically served the Egyptian real estate sector well, as investors usually view it as a safe haven. However, the current macro environment is challenging to the industry, in our view. Cost-inflationary pressures, caused by soaring inflation rates, which averaged 13.8% in 2022, led to cost overruns and pushed developers to resort to receivables securitization more than bank debt, which pressured their operating margins. We expect this to continue into 2023e as we expect inflation to average 21.5%. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) raised the key policy rates by 800 bps in 2022, and the EGP devalued by c37% in 2022 and by c18% y-t-d. To fend off dollarization and keep inflation in check, Egyptian public banks issued high-yielding certificates of deposits (CDs), offering an interest rate of as much as 25.0%, and private banks followed suit. In our view, the high-yielding CDs compete with investment in the real estate sector, adversely impacting its pre-sales which only grew by c8% in 9M22 in terms of value, while volume dropped c5% y-o-y for the six developers we track, as opposed to growing by c59% in 2021, which was volume and value-driven. Developers could not extend payment plans further, as previous years’ extended payment plans had already stretched their cash flows, raising concerns about affordability. In 2023e, we expect pre-sales growth to be price-driven.”

Elsaadany added: “Tourism recovery and EGP devaluation lead us to prefer developers with hospitality exposure; while we keep an eye on M&A targets: Given the currency outlook and a recovering tourism sector, as evidenced by higher occupancy rates, we like companies with significant hospitality operations, namely Orascom Development Egypt (ORHD EY) and Talaat Moustafa Group Holding (TMGH EY). Also, in light of a high-interest rate environment, we like developers who have been active in deleveraging their balance sheets and building on their ready-to-move inventory, putting themselves at a cost advantage, like Palm Hills Developments (PHDC EY). The three stocks also enjoy solid fundamentals and decent market liquidity. We believe three of the six companies under our coverage are subject to M&A speculation and/or currently the subject of a potential deal with ORHD’s sale of its subsidiary, Orascom Real Estate (ORE) to SODIC, under study. Also, in our view, MNHD and HELI are the two other developers we believe are most likely to be the subject of a potential acquisition due to their attractive land bank. As a result, the stock prices of ORHD, MNHD, and HELI rallied c20%, c43%, and c18%, respectively, during 2022, implying a value of EGP615/sqm of land for HELI and EGP1,227/sqm for MNHD at the current market prices. Given the outlook on the EGP, we maintain a favorable view on acquisition targets during 2023e despite them offering lower potential returns based on our valuations. The valuations for the deals/potential deals seen by the market ranged from EGP878/sqm—1,192/sqm of undeveloped land. The most recent offer by SODIC to acquire Orascom Real Estate (ORE), a subsidiary of Orascom Development Egypt (ORHD EY), implied a price of EGP878/sqm, or USD45/sqm. In our view, future potential deals should see a significant increase on an EGP basis.”

“The sector challenges are reflected in stock prices which are currently oversold with an average 2023e P/NAV and P/E ratios of 0.34x and 6.08x (excluding HELI), respectively, suggesting that the overselling is excessive, in our view. PHDC and TMGH stocks have not rallied as much as other real estate names despite both companies delivering good results, PHDC initiating a share buyback program, and both stocks paying dividends. PHDC is trading at a 2023e P/NAV of 0.29x, and TMGH is trading at 0.32x, lower than the sector’s average. PHDC offers the highest potential return of c83% and TMGH c57%, while the market assigns a negative value to TMGH’s land bank. Therefore, we maintain our Overweight recommendations for the two stocks.

In our view, an economic pickup, monetary easing, and the development of the mortgage market for the upper-middle segment would be the sector’s key triggers.”, Mariam Elsaadany concluded.

HC believes the MPC is to keep the policy rates unchanged

Posted on by Marwa Nakhla

 

  • HC Securities & Investment shared their expectations on the likely outcome of the MPC meeting scheduled February 2nd. Based on Egypt’s current situation, they expect the CBE to keep the policy rates unchanged.

Financials analyst and economist at HC, Heba Monir commented: “We expect the MPC to keep the policy rates unchanged to allow the market to absorb the 300 bps hike of the 22 December 2022 meeting. Also, the CBE declared that foreign investments in the Egyptian market exceeded USD925m in the week following the EGP/USD movement on 11 January 2023, mentioning that carry trade is becoming more attractive to foreign investors. We expect the headline urban inflation to accelerate and reach 23.5% in July 2023 before it retreats to 18.2% in December 2023, averaging 21.5% throughout 2023. We expect the EGP 1-Year T-bills to average around 20.6% in 2023 (accounting for a 15% tax rate for US and European investors), taking into the calculation a 200 bps rise in the corridor that we expect to materialize over the rest of the year. This considers fluctuations in Egypt’s CDS 1-Year, which currently records 504.7, down from its peak at 1,774 on 27 July 2022, yet still high compared to its record low of 181 on 17 September 2021. The EGP depreciated by c17% over the past month, registering EGP29.9/USD, due to the accumulated pressures on Egypt’s balance of payment (BoP) and high foreign debt obligations, although there was a slight improvement in (1) Net International Reserves (NIR) inching up 1.4% m-o-m for the first time since December 2020 versus a 16.9% y-o-y decline to USD34.0bn in December 2022, (2) the banking sector’s net foreign liability (NFL) position, excluding the CBE, narrowing by 16.7% m-o-m to USD13.7bn in November 2022 for the first time since July 2022 while widening by 93% y-o-y. The latest 12M T-bills auction yield of 18.57% (accounting for a 15% tax rate for US and European investors) offers a real yield of positive 0.57%, given our inflation expectation of 18.0% in January 2024, solidifying our view of a needed increase in policy rates until the end of the year.”

It is worth mentioning that, in its 22 December 2022 meeting, The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to raise the benchmark overnight deposit and lending rates by 300 bps to 16.25% and 17.25%, respectively. This decision accelerated its tightening pace by 500 bps in 4Q22, raising policy rates by 800 bps during 2022. Meanwhile, headline urban inflation surged to 21.3% in December 2022, with an average of 13.8% during 2022. On the global market, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 425 bps versus an average inflation rate of 6.5% during 2022.