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In light of Egypt’s macro economy developments and the global conditions, HC Securities & Investment expects the CBE to keep the interest rates unchanged in its upcoming meeting scheduled September 5th, 2024
Financials analyst and economist at HC, Heba Monir commented: “We expect urban inflation to decelerate to 24.9% y-o-y for August on a favorable base effect. However, we anticipate a 1.0% m-o-m increase on the recent energy and transportation cost hikes at the beginning of August. Egypt’s PMI index surpassed the 49.0’s level over the last three consecutive readings, coinciding with the deceleration in inflation. Egypt’s external position showed a stable outlook, as follows: (1) Egypt received USD820m from the IMF, representing the third tranche of its USD8.0bn EFF, (2) the banking sector’s net foreign assets (NFA) narrowed by USD1.27bn m-o-m to USD13.0bn in June from USD14.3bn in May, reversing a net foreign liability (NFL) position of USD27.0bn a year earlier. We attribute the m-o-m lower NFA to probably normalized FX inflows, (3) net international reserves (NIR) increased c33% y-o-y and 0.2% m-o-m to USD46.5bn in July, and deposits not included in the official reserves rose 2.11x y-o-y and 3.0% m-o-m to USD9.86bn in the same month, (4) Egypt’s REER index decreased to 91.9 in July from 126 in January, and the NEER index also retreated to 16.6 from 25.5 in January, according to Bruegel data, (5) Egypt’s 1-year CDS recorded 403 currently, down from its figure of 857 bps on 1 January. On the global front, the US sovereign 12M rate also retreated to 4.40% from its peak at 5.23% on 30 April. Thus, our interest rate model estimated the required interest rate by investors on the 12-month T-bills at 33.1%, which implies a real positive interest rate of 7.1% (after deducting a 15% tax rate for European and US investors and based on our 12M average inflation rate forecast of 21.1%), higher than the estimated positive interest rate of 1.2% over the latest 12M T-bill rate of 26.2%. All these factors pave the way for interest cuts; however, we expect the MPC to maintain rates unchanged at the 5 September meeting, waiting for more inflation deceleration, given recent electricity bill hikes scheduled to take effect in September.”
It is worth mentioning that, in its 18 July meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) maintained the benchmark overnight deposit and lending rates unchanged at 27.25% and 28.25%, respectively, after it hiked them by 600 bps in March, bringing total rate hikes to 1,900 bps since it started its tightening policy, including 300 bps in 2022, 800 bps in 2023 and 800 bps in 2024. Egypt’s annual headline inflation decelerated to 25.7% in July from 27.5% in June, according to the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) data. Monthly prices inched up 0.4% m-o-m, compared to an increase of 1.6% m-o-m in the previous month. On the global front, the US Federal Reserve maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25–5.50% after it hiked rates by 100 bps in 2023 and 425 bps in 2022, with a total of 525 bps since it started its tightening policy, while the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered the key ECB interest rates for the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending and deposit facility by 25 bps to 4.25%, 4.50% and 3.75%, respectively after nine months of holding rates steady on an improved inflation outlook. Based on Egypt’s current economic situation, we present below our expectations for the possible outcome of the 5 September MPC meeting
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HC Securities & Investment is a leading investment bank in Egypt and the MENA region. Since its inception in 1996, HC has utilized its relationship-driven insights, local and regional market knowledge, and industry-specific expertise and strong execution capabilities to provide its clients with a wide range of services in investment banking, asset management, securities brokerage, research, custody and online trading through its offices in Egypt and the UAE (DIFC). HC Investment Banking has an outstanding track record of advising leading corporates in Egypt and the MENA region on M&A, capital market, and financing transactions in excess of USD6.6bn. HC Asset Management now manages 7 mutual funds for commercial banks and portfolios for institutions and sovereign wealth funds with assets under management in excess of EGP7bn. HC Brokerage is ranked among the top brokers in Egypt and provides a wide array of services, including research and online trading to institutional and retail clients.
