- In light of Egypt’s macro economy developments and the geopolitical conditions, HC Securities & Investment believes the CBE is keeping the interest rates unchanged in the MPC upcoming meeting scheduled December 26, 2024
Financials analyst and economist at HC, Heba Monir commented: “Egypt’s external position remains stable; however, USD liquidity was lower than the previous month, (1) with net international reserves (NIR) increasing by USD10.0m m-o-m in November to USD46.952bn from USD46.942bn in October, the lowest increase since September 2022, which can be due to Egypt’s scheduled commitment to repay USD3bn of green and Islamic financing to Gulf banks and USD1.32bn in matured Eurobonds during November, (2) the banking sector’s net foreign assets (NFA) position narrowing by 10.8% m-o-m to USD9.21bn in October from USD10.3bn in September, reversing a net foreign liability (NFL) position of USD27.2bn a year earlier, and an NFL of USD1.41bn, excluding the CBE, and (3) Egypt’s 1-year CDS dropping to 353 currently, from 857 bps on 1 January. On the economic activity front, the PMI index rose slightly for the second consecutive month to 49.2 in November from 49.0 in October, still below the 50.0 mark, with the report showing that contraction softened from the previous month, attributing this reading to the weak customer demand. For December’s inflation, we expect it to decelerate to 24.1% y-o-y and 0.2% m-o-m, on relatively lower to stable vegetable and fruit prices due to seasonality. Regarding the exchange rate, the EGP has depreciated by c2.5% since the start of December due to a strengthening of the USD against other currencies. The latest 12M T-bill auction yielded a positive real interest rate of 2.9% over the weighted average yield of 26.24%, net of 15.0% tax on US and UK investors and factoring in our inflation estimate one-year from now of 19.4%, with this real yield subject to increase further with the inflation deceleration. From the above, we expect the MPC to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming 26 December meeting to keep the carry trade attractive until inflation moderates.”
It is worth mentioning that, in its 21 November meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) maintained the benchmark overnight deposit and lending rates unchanged at 27.25% and 28.25%, respectively, for the fifth consecutive times, after it hiked them by 600 bps in March, bringing total rate hikes to 1,900 bps since it started its tightening policy in 2022. Egypt’s annual headline inflation decelerated to 25.5% y-o-y in November from 26.5% y-o-y in October, according to the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) data. Monthly prices rose 0.5% m-o-m in November compared to a 1.1% m-o-m increase in October. On the global front, on 18 December, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 4.25-4.50%, bringing total cuts to 100 bps after it hiked rates by 525 bps since it started its tightening policy in 2022. Also, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered the key ECB interest rates for the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending and deposit facility by 25 bps on 12 December to 3.15%, 3.40% and 3.00%, respectively, bringing total cuts to 100 bps, since it started cuts in June 2024 after it hiked rates by 250 bps since it started its tightening policy in 2022. Based on Egypt’s current economic situation, we present below our expectations for the possible outcome of the 26 December MPC meeting.
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HC Securities & Investment is a leading investment bank in Egypt and the MENA region. Since its inception in 1996, HC has utilized its relationship-driven insights, local and regional market knowledge, and industry-specific expertise and strong execution capabilities to provide its clients with a wide range of services in investment banking, asset management, securities brokerage, research, custody and online trading through its offices in Egypt and the UAE (DIFC). HC Investment Banking has an outstanding track record of advising leading corporates in Egypt and the MENA region on M&A, capital market, and financing transactions in excess of USD6.6bn. HC Asset Management now manages 7 mutual funds for commercial banks and portfolios for institutions and sovereign wealth funds with assets under management in excess of EGP7bn. HC Brokerage is ranked among the top brokers in Egypt and provides a wide array of services, including research and online trading to institutional and retail clients.
